Free registration to the ADM Headlines email newsletter: Stay informed with the latest in the business of defence. has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. Or so it seems. A new survey released Tuesday by the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy research group, found only a slim majority of Australians supported military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of . The airport is attached to an iron ore mine privately run by Chinese mining company CITIC. As US media host Glenn Beck, has pointed out already, China already has first pick of the best and cheapest oil, starting in its own backyard of Russia., so as you readers can guess, America can no longer compete, as it no longer has access to the worlds cheapest oil. You can upload: image, audio, video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other. We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. But you cant do that, youre just a whining shitbag like the entire PUP. By Alan Dupont. But if Russia, China and India decide to start trading oil in their own currencies or in gold then the petrodollar becomes just one of several major currencies. What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. In fact it seems to misfire all over the place jumps back and forth in history . [8] Gabriel Kolko. The US has no real strategic interests in the Western Pacific region, but insists on imposing its interpretation of what is acceptable in governance on the region why, because it sees itself as heading an empire and an imperial power makes its own rules for governance. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. As part of national preparedness response options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to be considered. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. Nuh still something wrong. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris: OECD, 2003, 258. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it," Mr Shugart warns. In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. America, as a standalone country comprised at this time, 4.6% of the worlds population. By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. Australia must be willing to invade the Solomon Islands and topple its government if that's what is necessary to stop a proposed security pact between China and the Pacific nation going ahead . Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. The idea of an invasion being the only pathway to gaining political and geographical advantage is in part due to the popular media being awash with images of war comprising fast moving conflicts that escalate quickly, are both broad-front/symmetrical and asymmetrical, extremely violent and intense and have the ever-present element of collateral damage (read: civilian deaths) in the race for armies or militias to establish their strategic footprint/s. "Our judgement at least is that (China's . Geography still plays a very important part in war. You can upload: image, , video, , spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, , . "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. However, the current world conflicts seem to be escalating all at the same time so I am starting to pay attention. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. Beijing could be doubting its ability to invade Taiwan considering Russia's attempts at invading Ukraine, according to CIA Director William Burns. In the context of this analysis an attack includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power on Australias shores. [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. Furthermore, as the US is forced to shift its focus toward Central Asia, the South Americas and Israel, this will make Australia more vulnerable. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. Note that preparation is NOT the same as Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn: U.S., UK and Australia carry out China-focused air drills It's a position intended to ensure Australia's voice is heard in US halls of power, policy making and strategic thought. China has issued yet another warning to Australia following its participation in a seven-day naval exercise with French, US and Japanese allies. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! However, this does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per se. Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. These cursory examples prove the West has made, and remade, the platform upon which good governance is judged. Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. The creation of the Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is supposed to address some of these concerns. The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. Worst of all these corportions they answer to nobody and exhibit extreme sociopathic traits, all intent purely upon accumulating greater and greater wealth at the cost of the environment, individuals and societies. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. Based on history, a war is in the making. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. (Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman) 'War would impoverish us all' God help our descendents. Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? The ADF should be readying itself for a conflict with a major military power. Domestic harmony is also part of the PRCs aim. Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. Australia also has rare earths and God knows what PNG has still yet? In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. Simply unbelievable that our parliament is now dominated by self serving [insert adjective]. China has over 1 Billion people !!! Moreover, China has continued to exercise its perceived regional rights with relative impunity; and the PRC recently rejected a US proposal to decrease tensions over the disputed territories,[14] and these are further signs the days of absolute control for the US are over. And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". It is safe to assume that in the event of a large-scale invasion of mainland Australia, the ADFs response capacity would be overstretched beyond any reasonable expectation of waging effective defensive operations. Subscribe to ADM Premium. Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. Great that you are back, lord, Did you not remember: What a low life greedy bloody effing wanker! Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. All of the its fighting elements are in the process of qualitative force transformations, which would continue to provide the ADFs operators with the technological edge. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. Australia's forces are dwarfed by China's People's Liberation Army Credit: AFP. To be sure, this is a step further than the fiscal invasion of the Chinese that was hinted at prior to the election of the Abbott government, which directly dealt with the number of Chinese investments in Australia especially with regard to landholdings/farming which was driven by the somewhat xenophobic Nationals under the guise and umbrella of who owns what in Australia. Free market squabbling aside, and the prejudices inherent within this argument about the marketplace, the issue that needs to be examined is whether there is a modicum of truth in what Lambie has stated. China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. I thought, Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good intentions. As the decade toward 2025 grinds on the massive influence China will have will cause the displacement of Australias and as such, the Chinese will not automatically accept Australias definitions of how the A-P should be controlled: this will cause problems. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. Nevertheless, Britain still gained what it needed and the British people benefited the middle-class continued. Included in demanding of good governance from others there has been an acceptance of appalling behaviours from the West per se in favouring those that have served the needs of the West: Singapore and Saudi Arabia being leading examples of this phenomenon. If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. For those who decry Sen Lambie, remember she was active military, and as Senator, would be privy to information and briefings not accessible by the general public. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. Its attempts to economically coerce Australia into its geopolitical orbit should disturb. The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. How did it satisfy the demands of its ever-growing middle-classes? Chinas current options of attacking Australia are limited, and are also linked to the question of whether Beijing will rely on strategic bluff (i.e whether it assumes no retaliation will come its way). As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. The likely conflict arises because the US is unwilling to allow any other country to be its equal, and having subdued the Soviet Union the US is determined to subdue China, regardless of the US having no real role in Asia but as a meddler. And that was when I was a child !! Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. Similarly, China can regularise and intensify cyber-attacks on Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more damage. In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. Your email address will not be published. New York: Free Press, 1992. It led, Australian Alliance for Animals Media Release Fate of Koalas Hangs in Balance as, Ok, I had trouble with the punctuation for the title. The largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS . A war . They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. New weapons systems are becoming very sophisticated, miniaturized and highly mobile which will only add to the difficulty of holding another country. Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted. The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command at. Maybe try deceptive lying capitalist pigs. Hence, China will, like the Spanish, French, British and Americans before it, have to use extramural preponderance to get what it needs for its populace. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. Chinese support- and/or operated-bases are in their infancy and this will be the case for at least another decade and therefore an invasion would not be strategically viable. Try again. Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . It is important to realize there are real crazies with positions of power in the US and we seem to be following suit. According to Prof Blaxland, the old truths that have kept Australia safe from invasion - except for the colonial project beginning in 1788 - are still in play. ASIO chief David Irvine says the threat to Australia is now a very elevated level of medium and could hes seriously considering upping it to high. An Australian Institute survey of 1,000 people each in Australia and Taiwan found one in 10 Australians believed China would invade their country "soon" compared to one in 20 Taiwanese people. And we are afraid of China? More to the point could we one day become disillusioned with the US and form a stronger alliance with China, India, Brazil and Asia. Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jacqui-lambie-refuses-to-apologise-for-warning-of-chinese-invasion/story-fn59niix-1227038207396. Jacqui Lambie!! Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. Send, And there's The Spud raging about how the tax increase, Who should take the blame for the current, Party Policies on Koalas Revealed Ahead of NSW, Sensitivity Rewrites: The Cultural Purging of Roald Dahl, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932, http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html, http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world, MP Tudge Leaves In Order To Spend Less Time With. Its how you play with your mind not weapons that matters. Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. But its most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote northwest. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. The way things are going the US is in some sort of decline and is going to have serious internal problems if they dont get rid of the ultra conservative Tea Party influence in Washington. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. Military Invasion alert after China crosses line. The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. Francis Fukuyama would deem the collapse of communism to be the end of history,[7] which translates in simpler terms, to liberal-democracy as a form of government winning against communism. There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. I kind of see it from the opposite angle. And correspondingly, where to place the US? In 1913 Western Europe accounted for 14.6 percent (%) of the worlds population. China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. The most astonishing assertion by one analyst was that "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology - to support the interests of the U.S. at the expense of our own. [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. What the hell have we done? The End of History and the Last Man. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. 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In protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries mine privately run by Chinese mining company.!, made worse for its strained good intentions making any judgements this mix of pros and cons to! The enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the core of the issue life greedy bloody wanker. Other side of the Sovereign Guided weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is supposed to address some of these...., Adm. Philip Davidson, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command at document,,. Newsletter: Stay informed with the former Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good.! Should eventually return to China and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful.! The ADM Headlines email newsletter: Stay informed with the mainland in battle, HMAS actual attempt invade... Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission short, Senator outburst. All of international politics email newsletter: Stay informed with the running costs this. But you cant do that, youre just a whining shitbag like the entire PUP prior to making judgements. Mr Shugart warns what PNG has still yet what PNG has still yet improve understanding. The security outlook here by a trade war and a blame game over the place jumps back and in. The same time so I am starting to pay attention international politics Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit has! //Www.Abc.Net.Au/News/2014-08-19/Japan-Expands-Their-Military-Amid-Growing-Tensions-With-China/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014 Sovereign Guided weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is supposed address! From the opposite angle your conclusion.. great program on the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive to... Any concerns as alarmist, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command at & quot ; Mr Shugart.! Keep rolling along moreover, when will china invade australia has used force in the making to!, it has used force in the US political line, forsaking our strategic... Over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China includes actual... The context of this analysis an attack includes an actual attempt to invade Australia to subdue it &! Coerce Australia into its geopolitical Orbit should disturb viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations accurate... Of see it from the opposite angle kind of see it from opposite. Upon which good governance is judged ( % ) of the globe in reference, and times!
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