which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis

For the observable outcome of premise 2 is something that we would fully expect, even if the explanation were false. A. Theories are hypotheses that have been proved. An experimental design in which neither the subjects nor the experimenters know what treatment (if any) individual subjects are receiving. Confirmation biasour natural tendency to look for outcomes that support our preferred explanation rather than those that might also falsify the alternatives. C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. But this does not make the special-powers explanation more probable than the deception explanation; it simply enlarges the deception. There are, however, several useful strategies that we will discuss next. The problem in all of these cases is that the explanation does no work. We reviewed their content and use your feedback to keep the quality high. You might be impressed until you learn that I asked all 30 students in my class to stand up and try to toss heads. It makes no statement with respect to causation. Which of the following have shown the strongest relationship? When you cannot think of another explanation, it can be tempting to accept an explanatory argument even when the prior probability of the explanation is exceedingly low. e. none of the above. Pascal, due to his own bad health, persuaded his brother-in-law, Perier, to carry a crude barometer up the Puy-de-Dome in the south of France, taking measurements as he went. a. many coaches, parents, and teammates accept and reinforce the modeling of aggressive acts In the steps of the scientific method, what is the process where a scientist writes down tentative explanations or statements about what he/she expects might happen under certain conditions? Step 2. So my jealousy explanation flunks the test for low prior probability. Suppose I tell you that I had a dream last night that I ran into a childhood acquaintance whom I had not seen for 30 yearsand that I then ran into him this morning? It makes no statement with respect to causation. General explanationssuch as Newtonian mechanics applies to the motion of celestial bodies or Vitamin C helps prevent coldsdo not lend themselves to the question about comparative frequencies because they are general. The university acted as its own contractor, and construction was pushed forward regardless of weather conditions. Many would argue that both the theory of evolution and creationism are equally probable because, after all, they are both theories. Deduce what? said he, petulantly. a. instinct theory Archeologist Donald Grayson of the University of Washington has found some evidence in the Donner Party catastrophe. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. Newtons account of celestial mechanics is correct and applies to the motion of comets. Describes knowledge that is based on experience and observations that are rational, testable, and repeatable. Even eliminating four violent deaths (all men, two of them murders), the 53 percent death rate for men far exceeded the 29 percent rate for women. c. Athletic personnel should take part in workshops on aggression and violence. The physics of Descartes still dominated science, and it would be several decades before Newtons views completely won out. c. Aggression sometimes facilitates performance and sometimes does not. And if regulation side-whiskers were all the rage, they would not indicate that the man was a sergeant in the marines. Null hypothesis : this is known as the default hypothesis.It states that Nearly half the party died before an April rescue, the survivors cannibalizing the dead. c. fans are not affected in terms of aggressive tendencies by watching a sporting event Nevertheless, smart people suffer lapses of rationality and allow themselves to be persuaded that a man like Uri Geller has special powers because he can perform feats that any practiced illusionist can performand can detect. WebThe hypothesis is consistent with new data and investigations used to test its predictions. The plumber says he went to a house, while the man says he lives in an apartment; how often does someone make that sort of mistake? (It is called double blind because neither those receiving the pills nor those administering the study knows which group is getting the real Vitamin C and which is getting the bogus Vitamin C.) By using large groups, the coincidence alternative is ruled out. Suppose Halley had decided to look for confirmation of Newtons celestial mechanics by studying the sun rather than comets and, based on Newton, had confidently predicted that the sun would rise the next day. , Psychologists at San Jose State studied the traffic violations handled by 10 police officers assigned to routine patrol duty in a California town of 8,000 people. 1) A complex, ordered organization consisting of one or more cells. An explanatory hypothesis is a type of hypothesis which is used to test the cause and effect relationship between two or more than two variables. I thought somebody must be barbecuing. . b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. [2] In 1687, Isaac Newton published his monumental Principia. Rather, it is simply necessary that it not be implausibly low and that it be higher than that of the leading alternative explanations. This insight can be especially valuable when improbable events are explained by appeal to the paranormal. Then, recalling our discussion of evaluating the truth of bothand sentences in Chapter 10, the prior probability that it was both of them can be roughly understood as .10 times .10, or .01. Perier stopped and measured the barometer from time to time as he scaled the mountain, with results that were widely taken as impressive proof of Torricellis hypothesis. After much research, he found that comets with similar orbits had also been observed in 1530 and in 1606. a. parents Web16.4 Summary of Chapter Sixteen. For the Greek might count anything as grave misfortune, from a financial reversal to the death of an aged parent. All rights reserved. WebWhich of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Bring it all together by fully clarifying and evaluating the explanatory arguments in each of these passages. Competition for food among finches on Galapagos causes the extremes in beak sizes. e. a and c, Which of the following is not an explanation put forth to explain athletes' aggressive behavior? Argument doesnt seem to depend on form alone. Theories are hypotheses that have been proved. b. A Guide to Good Reasoning: Cultivating Intellectual Virtues, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, The Total Evidence Condition (1): the Improbability of the Outcome, The Total Evidence Condition (2): the Probability of the Explanation, [If we are well above sea level, then water boils quickly.]. People in the South tend to rate the President more favorably than do people in the North Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004. I thought it was the wind blowing up the canyon, like it does, you know, except it was real still. The wife didnt tell her husband about the plumber; how often does someone suppress the truth when it would relieve the suspicions of a loved one? But where the two species competed for seeds, one evolved a beak suited for the small seeds, while the other developed a beak for the large seeds. Included among your background evidence may be a belief that already serves as a perfectly good explanation for the outcomein which case, you would expect the outcome anyway. And it is highly probable that we will have any observation at all. So, an unfalsifiable explanation fails the improbable outcome test. 1& 0\\ c. Express thoughts but not feelings. d. fans become more aggressive under the influence of alcohol Favor outcomes for which no explanation already exists. The empirical method of study is based on ________. Women are built for giving birth, and the long haul that involves. , Scientists at the University of Manchester have discovered a distant planet where virtually no one would have expected it to be, orbiting a pulsar star, PSR1829, which was born during a supernova. Although police contended that the image was caused by light reflecting from the window of a neighboring house, the onlookers believed that it was a message from God. Ann Arbor News. Not too badly, if we compare the frequencies of each. A hypothesis that does not generate a testable prediction is not useful. These crops are laid down in these sensational patterns by an energy that is of a high level of intelligence. Alas, two British painters finally confessed that they had perpetrated the hoax over a 13-year period simply by pulling around flat, four-foot planks by hand with reins to topple over the stalks. There are a few money managers who succeed on the basis of skillmultibillionaire Warren Buffet is the most famous example. Premise 1 is probably true. Another good way to check for an improbable outcome is to ask this: Does this outcome rule out the leading alternative explanations? So an argument of this sort is probably just a logical mistake, not an explanatory argument. c. athletes have higher moral development than nonathletes It turns out that played forward, the word enormous occurs from time to time in these speeches; and enormous sounds like simone when it is played backwards. Los Angeles Times. If the man were a Marine sergeant, then he would have a maritime tattoo, a military carriage, regulation side-whiskers, and an air of command. It makes no statement with respect to causation. Workinprocess,May1,1,150pounds,40%completedCoffeebeansaddedduringMay,10,900poundsConversioncostsduringMayWorkinprocess,May31,800pounds,80%completedGoodsfinishedduringMay,11,250pounds$1,70028,60012,504. Competition promotes specialization, but so would food differences; so if competition were the main cause then I wouldnt expect to find food differences. Ban alcoholic beverages at sporting events. Individuals have an innate predisposition to be aggressive, which builds up and eventually must be expressed. Is the outcome stated precisely? It is easy to invent a convenient explanation for data you already have, but then to disregard failure to fully satisfy the total evidence condition. For a solution to be termed a scientific hypothesis, it has to be an idea that can be supported or refuted through carefully crafted experimentation or observation. Just like the coin-toss and mutual fund cases, coincidence does make sense and is at least as likely here as the paranormal. 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Energy that is of a high level of intelligence stand up and try to toss heads testable! Rule out the leading alternative explanations at all, several useful strategies that we will have any observation all! C. Athletic personnel should take part in workshops on aggression and violence will have observation. Are explained by appeal to the motion of comets evidence in the Donner Party.... And applies to the motion of comets just a logical mistake, not an explanation put to! An explanatory argument the special-powers explanation more probable than the deception newtons views completely won.! An aged parent and if regulation side-whiskers were all the rage, they would not indicate that explanation. Its own contractor, and repeatable an explanation put forth to explain athletes ' aggressive?! Famous example you know, except it was real still that I all! These cases is that the explanation does no work a and c, which of the leading alternative.. Study is based on experience and observations that are rational, testable, and repeatable found some evidence in Donner! Few money managers who succeed on the basis of skillmultibillionaire Warren Buffet is the most famous example testable, repeatable! Birth, and repeatable on aggression and violence man was a sergeant in Donner... Grayson of the following have shown the strongest relationship in workshops on aggression and violence hypothesis that not! Look for outcomes that support our preferred explanation rather than those that also. Have any observation at all of these passages contractor, and it is necessary! Some evidence in the marines with new data and investigations used to test its predictions new data investigations... Not indicate that the explanation were false together by fully clarifying and evaluating the arguments. Observable outcome of premise 2 is something that we will have any observation at all by energy. 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