In terms of the old or anachronistic law, two of the Nile Water Treaties do not bind Ethiopia meanwhile the third does not actually preclude the construction of a dam. Ethiopia is pinning its hopes of economic development and power generation on the dam. Further, it means that this figure should be used to assess the impact of the Dam on the Egyptian economy for the purposes of calculating compensation resulting from loss of flow. On 5 July 2021, Ethiopia informed Egypt and Sudan that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia is undergoing its second filling. But the project has caused concern. We do know that Ethiopia is already seeing longer droughts and worse floods. casting the DoP as a treaty) has the potential to abrogate the Nile Waters Treaties that Egypt holds so dear. The above-mentioned Gilgel Gibe III Dam stood out as the worlds most controversial dam until the GERD. This was an attempt at a wholesale replacement for the Nile Waters Treaties. Feb 11th 2021 DAMS HAVE several uses. At 6,000 MW, the dam will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa when completed at 2017(IPoE, 2013). Recently, the tensions among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile have escalated, particularly after Ethiopia announced that it had started filling the GERDs reservoir, an action contrary to Egypts mandate that the dam not be filled without a legally binding agreement over the equitable allocation of the Niles waters. However, another trend stresses the need to approach the question from a broader and more holistic perspective. On the surface, the 558 ft tall dam Africa's biggest hydropower project belies Ethiopia's financial muscle. The researchers looked at the dynamic interactions between the Nile's hydrology and infrastructure and Egypt's economy. Many historical grievances and distrust remain on the Ethiopian side regarding Egypt (Gebreluel, 2014), with some Ethiopian journalists assessing the 'Declaration of Principles' as being more in favour of Egypt than Ethiopia (Zegabi East Africa News, 2015). Ethiopias Blue Nile Dam is an opportunity for regional collaboration, Developing countries are key to climate action, Self-organizing Nigeria: The antifragile state, Managing the compounding debt and climate crises. It was in the hope of protecting Lake Turkana against such threats that it was listed as a World Heritage Site. The disadvantages for Egypt and Sudan are the possibility of reduced river flow, although this is only really a problem during the years of filling the dam. "I came to Cairo on my first official trip to the region to hear . Indeed, Egypt has called the filling of the dam an existential threat, as it fears the dam will negatively impact the countrys water supplies. As mentioned above, Ethiopias dam-construction strategy is intimately linked with large-scale foreign investment in the agrarian sector and specifically in areas near the artificial reservoirs created by the dams. Hence, the customary law argument might be too ambitious. This is an intergovernmental partnership to provide a forum for consultation and coordination for the sustainable management and development of shared water. Given these considerations, it seems that Ethiopia has all but won the dispute. Ethiopia, with a population of more than 115 million people and Projected to be 230 million by 2050. Yet, Ethiopia is fully aware of Somalias economic dependence on the rivers originating from Ethiopias highlands. You must have JavaScript enabled to use this form. In terms of the current status of talks, in 2019, US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin began facilitating negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia which led to some tentative progress. Learn the history of Toronto from the city's official website. It provides clear benefits to all three riparian, such as flood control, reduced flood damages and sediment control. First woman appointed to the Canada Supreme Court. But this did not rule out eruptions of tension, not just between local communities and the central government, but also between Ethiopia and its neighbours. This is good news for Egypt and Sudan as hydropower means little actual water withdrawal. A Tripartite National Committee (TNC), consisting of national experts from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, was constituted in order to determine principles of cooperation. In particular, the DoP takes a very strict approach to the no significant harm rule. Crucially, however, neither Egypt nor Ethiopia are parties to the Watercourses Convention and so they are not bound by its terms. Ethiopias interests in developing its water resources are driven by its growing population and high demand for socio-economic development (Gebreluel, 2014). Nevertheless, Egypt must not use sympathy for its water vulnerability as a weapon to frustrate the efforts of the other riparians to secure an agreement that is balanced, fair, and equitable. On Feb. 26, Ethiopia temporarily suspended its . when did construction of the dam begin? Egypt, fearing major disruptions to its access to the Niles waters, originally intended to prevent even the start of the GERDs construction. Although Egypt and Sudan are likely to resist efforts to include the other upstream riparians in the negotiations or to allow a regional organization, such as the NBI, to serve as an implementing organ, they must understand that the Nile River is a regional watercourse and its management must be approached from a regional perspective. Another argument Egypt might adduce concerns the DoP. (2020). The decisions that this group renders must be binding on all riparian states. Similarly, in 2018, the UNSC noted the water security risks in African nations such as Somalia, Sudan and Mali. The Dam is being built by Ethiopia on the Nile River and is fiercely opposed by Egypt. to hydrate farmland), it would effectively be taken from downstream states like Egypt. Another important area of cooperation is research, especially in areas like climate change, the fight against terrorism and extremism, and human rights. Therefore, a negotiated position that favours Ethiopia is likely to be reached once it becomes politically palatable enough inside Egypt. (eds.). Although Egypt has persistently argued that the 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan is the legal framework for the allocation of the waters of the Nile, Ethiopia and other upstream riparian states reject that argument. Perhaps even more consequential is the fact that this agreement granted Egypt veto power over future Nile River projects. The IPoE report recommended two studies to assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of GERD and was interpreted by both the Egyptian and the Ethiopian government as a vindication of their respective positions. per year, that would constitute a drought, to push the three countries to adhere to their obligations in accordance with the rules of international law in order to reach a fair and balanced solution to the issue of the GERD, 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and 1959 Agreement. In contrast, other watercourse states on the Nile have lent their support to the Dam. Governing the Nile River Basin: The Search for a New Legal Regime. The Gerd is expected to generate over 5,000 megawatts of electricity, doubling the nation's . In an effort to forestall potential water conflicts such as the one brewing around the Dam, an increasing number of bilateral and multilateral water agreements have been concluded in recent decades. The New Arab (2020b). Indeed, as Tekuya notes, Ethiopia persistently objected to the 1929 and 1959 treaties and made clear that its failure to exploit the Nile resulted from a lack of capacity rather than a lack of a legal right to do so. The latter, in Article 2(4), allocated acquired rights of 66% of Nile water to Egypt and 22% to Sudan (with the remaining 12% attributed to leakage). The Chinese then took over the funding amidst heightened international concern regarding the social, technical, and environmental repercussions of the Ethiopian dams. It could be a treaty or merely a political declaration as the name implies. There are suggestions that Egyptian officials in the World Bank managed to precipitate a policy that funds would only be awarded for non-contentious water projects, thus precluding funding for the Dam. Ethiopia Needs the United States to Act as an Honest Broker in the Nile . The Blue Nile is Ethiopias largest river, with high potential for hydropower and irrigation. In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. A regional framework for the management of the Nile already existsthe Nile Basin Initiative mentioned abovewhich is a partnership among the Nile riparian states that was launched in 1999. Ethiopia should get its fair share of water that originates in Ethiopia. Ethiopian Yearbook of International Law 2017. In the imperialist age, Ethiopian emperors threatened to alter the course of the Nile and stop its flow to Egypt. Today, however, Ethiopia is building the Grand Renaissance Dam and, with it, Ethiopia will physically control the Blue Nile Gorgethe primary source of most of the Nile waters. The colonial powers have departed and so to continue to enforce treaties agreed based around their interests would be irrational. the study highlights the importance of weighing up the advantages and disadvantages of counter-hegemonic tactics in general, and of large dam projects in particular, and . (2014). This is because it is traditionally understood to refer to waterways that form intrinsic parts of international boundaries. Because the strategy of land allocation and dam construction relied on senior executive decisions and foreign funding from China, above all, the government was largely freed of pressures of transparency and accountability. Officials in Addis Ababa argue that the GERD will have no major impact on water flow into the Nile, instead arguing that the hydropower dam will provide benefits to countries in the region, including as a source of affordable electric power and as a major mechanism for the management of the Nile, including the mitigation of droughts and water salinity. Disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), hailed by both Egypt and Ethiopia as a new chapter in relations between Egypt and Ethiopia based on openness and mutual understanding and cooperation (. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a 6,450 MW hydropower project nearing completion on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, located about 30 km upstream of the border with Sudan. The establishment of the Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, up 145 and a storage capacity of 74 . The Watercourses Convention aims to regulate the uses, as well as the conservation, of all transboundary waters above and below the surface. Egypt Forced to Negotiate on Nile Dam. Security implications of growing water scarcity in Egypt. The various warnings by experts about the dangers of the new Ethiopian dam have begun to cause panic among Egyptians, to the point of belief that the Aswan Dam will collapse once the Renaissance is completed. "The Israeli installation of the missile system around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was completed after the Israeli work began in May 2019, considering that it is the first Israeli air defense system abroad that can launch (two types of missiles), the first with a range of 5 km, and the second with a range of 50 kilometer". First, as noted above, Ethiopia contributes 86% of the water in the Nile and so it seems only natural that it has an equitable claim to using Nile waters to aid growth in its impoverished economy. Second, as also noted above, the Dam is to be used for electricity generation, not irrigation. Indeed, Egypt has called the filling of the dam an. This has now changed due to political consolidation over the past two decades and the advent of alternative sources of external finance (to the traditional multilateral development banks), not least from China (Gebreluel, 2014;IDS, 2013). Egypts Nile Water Policy under Sisi: Security Interests Promote Rapprochement with Ethiopia. Crucially, however, despite being signed by Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, the legal status of the DoP was left (deliberately) vague. The largest permanent desert lake in the world, Turkana has three national parks that are now listed as UNESCO World Heritage Sites. Ethiopias dam-construction strategy threatens not only Kenyas water-resource development efforts but also Somalias water security, as is evidenced by Ethiopias development plans for the Jubba and Shebelle Rivers. Egypt and Ethiopia have once again locked horns over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile. In the end, all 11 riparian states must understand that the way forward calls for the establishment of a meaningful resource-sharing agreement, one that sees and recognizes the Nile River as a regional watercourse. There are three key articles. This is a matter of acute concern given that Egypt depends on the Nile for about 97% of its irrigation and drinking water. To African commentators in recent decades, massive investments in mega-energy and irrigation projects were emblematic of the African economic emergence, and Ethiopia at that time vaunted itself as one of the fastest-growing economies in the region. (2017). It is clearly a philosophy that looks beyond the electricity and freshwater needs of local communities to a geo-strategic restructuring of the Horn of Africa. In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. An Ethiopian national flag is seen at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba, Ethiopia, on February 19, 2022. These parallel developments appear to be elements of a bigger hydro-political strategy wherein the riparian countries aim to increase their water utilisation to put facts on the ground (and underpin legal claims based on those uses) and increase their bargaining position for renegotiations of volumetric water allocations.